New Yale Forum Video Examines Key Point: ‘Global’ Includes Oceans Too

Slow-down in global surface temperature increases and flawed emphasis on land surface temperatures, at expense of ocean temperatures, explored in ‘This is Not Cool’ video. They call it ‘global’ warming for a reason.


They don’t call it “land-surface warming,” and they don’t call it “oceans-only warming.”

It’s called “global warming” for a reason, and one of the principal reasons is that climate change takes into account not only the approximately 29 percent of the Earth’s surface that consists of land, our continents, but also the 71 percent comprised of oceans.

In this month”s “This is Not Cool” video debriefing, independent videographer and climate analyst Peter Sinclair, of Midland, MI, presents and interviews an all-star cast of climate scientists helping tell what one — Ben Santer of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory — describes as “an internally physically consistent story” based on a wide body of scientific evidence on climate change.

As Columbia University scientist James Hansen explains in the video, global temperatures over the past decade-plus have increased about 1/10th of a degree, versus the 2/10ths of a degree increase in the previous decade. “But that’s just natural variability. There’s no reason to be surprised by that at all.”

Such “hiatus periods” have occurred in the past and are expected to again in the future, the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Jerry Meehl explains. The increased heat, he says, is going into the ocean, which NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory scientist Josh Willis calls “our most accurate thermometer for measuring climate change.”

The video comes at a time of confusion in some quarters about just how sensitive the global climate is to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations — and just how significant the resulting temperature increases are from a practical standpoint — and amidst widespread scientific curiosity and inquiry to explain an observed slow-down in global temperature over the past 15 years or so.

Those issues are expected to be at the forefront of coming points emphasized by parties interested in debunking the science as represented by the upcoming releases of IPCC “AR 5″ (Assessment Report 5) studies, due to begin being released at the end of September.

Scientists from a diverse collection of academic and government research institutions explain in Sinclair’s video that, NASA/JPL’s Willis says, sea-level rise over the past 20 years has shown an “incredibly steady background trend” that can be explained only by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Several point out that more than 90 percent of increasing global heat resulting from GHGs is taken-in by the oceans, and rising ocean temperatures — and resulting sea-level rise, particularly in the deepest ocean depths — are testimony to that continued warming.

So, what about the whole current debate about global warming having “ended” or at least “slowed down” over the past decade-and-a-half? The whole issue of the warming “pause” or, more accurately, slow-down, and its practical implications and significance will be subjects of several upcoming Yale Forum postings — including both new work and encore repostings of two well-received earlier explanations — and will be the subject explored also in Sinclair’s next “This is Not Cool” video, to be posted around the end of the month.

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4 Responses to New Yale Forum Video Examines Key Point: ‘Global’ Includes Oceans Too

  1. Jim Keil says:

    NOAA loves to display the OHC in joules rapidly increasing over time. How does this translate in degrees Centigrade? Research from Levitus et al (2012) revealed an increase in ocean temperature of .09 degrees C from 1955-2010. Nobody is suggesting when or how all this built up energy will affect climate!

  2. John Swallow says:

    This video has so many flaws in it that it is laughable, if it was being present as being the truth.
    “Increased ice loading in the Antarctic Peninsula since the 1850s and its effect on Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
    Key Points
    • Accumulation increase results in up to 45 m extra ice thickness over 155 years
    • Model predicts GIA-related subsidence of up to 7 mm/yr which will affect GPS
    • GRACE-derived rates of ice-mass change are biased low by ignoring this signal
    Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice core records indicate significant accumulation increase since 1855, and any resultant ice mass increase has the potential to contribute substantially to present-day Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA).”
    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012GL052559.shtml

    As for the Science Magazine’s findings, I would rather go with NOAA’s
    State of the Climate
    Global Snow & Ice
    October 2012
    ”The October 2012 Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent was 18.88 million square km (7.3 million square miles), 3.36 percent above average and the third largest October sea ice extent in the 1979-2012 period of record. Antarctic sea ice extent during October has increased at an average rate of 0.9 percent per decade, with substantial interannual variability.”
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/2012/10

    “August 4, 2013
    22nd Daily Record of Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
    Filed under: Antarctic Sea Ice — sunshinehours1 @ 7:14 AM
    Tags: Antarctic Sea Ice, climate, daily record, sea ice extent
    August 3 (Day 215) saw the 22nd Daily Record of the Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. This is the 11th daily record in a row.
    2013 is now closing in on the record for the 3rd and 4th number of daily records in a year (2006 and 2012).”

    Is this below another untrue statement made by Hansen, among many?
    “multi-meter sea level rise on the century time scale are not only possible, but almost dead certain”
    James Hansen – 2011

    “In the last 50 years sea level has risen at an estimated rateof .18 centimeters (.07 inches) per year, but in the last 12 years that rate appears to be .3 centimeters (.12 inches) per year. Roughly half of that is attributed to the expansion of ocean water as it has increased in temperature, with the rest coming from other sources, “said Dr. Steve Nerem, associate professor, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado, Boulder.

    “Scientists from a diverse collection of academic and government research institutions explain in Sinclair’s video that, NASA/JPL’s Willis says, sea-level rise over the past 20 years has shown an “incredibly steady background trend” that can be explained only by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

    “Sea levels are rising dangerously at a rate that has accelerated with increasing human GHG emissions, thereby threatening small islands and coastal communities.”
    Expert response by Professor Nils-Axel Mörner
    In 1991-2005 Professor Mörner was head of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University, in 1999-2003 president of the commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, from 2000 on leader of the Maldives International Sea Level Project, in 1997-2003 coordinator of the INTAS project on Geomagnetism and climate, and in 2008,he was awarded the “Golden Condrite of Merit” from Algarve University “for his irreverence and contribution to our understanding of sea level change”.   morner@pog.nu
     
     
    I put more stock in what a real oceanographer says than the ones with no experience that are going on conjecture only. When will good honest folks be listened to instead of self-serving charlatans in it for the money?
    “Claims of dramatic and dangerous sea level rise submerging small islands and coastal communities are not supported by actual observational data
    In 1999, I was expert reviewer of the chapter on Sea Level Changes in the IPCC report. I was struck and shocked by two facts; one was that none of the 22 authors was classified as a true sea level specialist, and the other was the very low quality of the text. Because, I had been just elected president of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, I took up the main issue in our commission, an organization hosting some 300-400 true sea level specialists from all around the world………..”
     

    “In the last 50 years sea level has risen at an estimated rateof .18 centimeters (.07 inches) per year, but in the last 12 yearsthat rate appears to be .3 centimeters (.12 inches) per year. Roughlyhalf of that is attributed to the expansion of ocean water as it has increased in temperature, with the rest coming from other sources, “said Dr. Steve Nerem, associate professor, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado, Boulder.

    Red line shows increase in global sea level since the early 1990s. Sea level has risen by a little more than an inch each decade, or about 3 mm per year. The recent drop of nearly one quarter inch (½ cm), is attributable to the switch from El Niño to La Niña.
    (Credit: S. Nerem, University of Colorado)
     

    This year has obliterated the record for year over year ice gain, by a factor of two. It is now close to what it was in 2002
    arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
    Daily Arctic Sea Ice Map

    Then the one that the alarmist have been salivating over, the arctic, does not seem to be going their way either.
    As Thomas Huxley famously stated: “The great tragedy in science: the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.”

    Ice delays supply barge for Western Arctic communities
    Several communities must wait a few more days for fuel resupplies
    CBC News 
    Posted: Sep 3, 2013 7:08 PM CT 
    “We have not seen ice with this type of coverage in quite a few years and I really don’t know how far back we might’ve seen it,” says Bill Smith, a spokesman with Northern Transportation Company Ltd., which services the communities.”

  3. John Swallow says:

    For some reason some of the links in the above presentation of mine did not appear and I feel that they are important to my points so that one can look up the sources and make up their own minds after that about the validity of the points. This is something far different than what many of the anthropogenic global warming crowd do; they want one to believe them because they have said it.

    Another point that I would like to add is that in my travels to different areas in the world where the sea meets land I have noticed that in the past the sea levels have been much in excess of where the levels are now. I have seen this demonstrated when I was in Ha Long Bay in northern Vietnam and also in Thailand where the limestone spires have met the ocean water. I saw the same indication of much higher sea levels in 2011 when I was on the Island of Zanzibar and the ancient coral that comprises the island has been eroded away by sea water at some time in the past and also, since the island is made of coral, the sea had to have been over the upper level of it in the past.

    The agw alarmist want to only deal with a very short time period regarding earth’s history and yet they can not seem to even understand that length of time.

    I will present some quotes to demonstrate my opinion of the alarmist and their views:
    “In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.”
    Galileo Galile
    “Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of the truth“ Albert Einstein
    “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such trifling investment of facts.” Mark Twain

    , University of Colorado, Boulder.
    http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/newsroom/pressreleases/index.cfm?FuseAction=ShowNews&NewsID=118

    gas emissions.
    http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2013/09/new-yale-forum-video-examines-key-point-global-includes-oceans-too/

    morner@pog.nu
      http://www.copenhagenclimatechallenge.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=53&Itemid=55

    from all around the world………..”
     http://www.copenhagenclimatechallenge.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=53&Itemid=55

    , University of Colorado)
    http://iceagenow.info/2011/08/sea-levels-dropped-2010/

    what it was in 2002
    arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
    Daily Arctic Sea Ice Map
    The Cryosphere Today
    Compare Daily Sea Ice
    http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=31&fy=2002&sm=08&sd=31&sy=2013

    services the communities.”

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2013/09/03/north-barge-delays.html

  4. Johnmary, Kampala international university says:

    The debate on climate change ought to be led by the big ommiters of gases.what is the comment of us gent.? Russia,plus other countries which are “more developed”